A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
